The performance of the hottest paper industry cont

2022-07-23
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The performance of the paper industry continues to rebound

in the third quarter, the profit of paper enterprises will definitely increase on the basis of the sharp rise in sales, strong prices and extraordinary export. However, we believe that in the third quarter, the profitability of papermaking enterprises, especially pulp and paper decoupling enterprises such as sun paper, which are mainly high-grade paper, is at a historical high. In the future, under the impact of the production capacity scale, the soft framework of the export oriented polypropylene dashboard and the rising cost, the profitability of such enterprises may decline

compared with the paper industry at the high profit point, we believe that the future investment opportunities are more likely to occur in the pulp industry, and the rising trend of pulp price is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. Mainly based on the following three undoubted reasons for its legal efficiency: the domestic reserve of wood pulp is insufficient; The high premium level of pulp and paper and the recovery of demand led to the resumption of production of European and American paper mills; In addition, the limited domestic chemical pulp supply will not reduce the import of chemical pulp during the production of high-end capacity. Therefore, in the rising channel of pulp price, the profits of wood pulp enterprises will rise rapidly in the future

the profit of the paper industry in the third quarter is at the best level, and the future decline is a high probability event. Since May, the prices of high-end paper products, especially coated paper and white cardboard produced from wood pulp, have continued to rise, and the cumulative increase has reached more than 1000 yuan. The profit per ton of paper of high-end paper production enterprises has increased from less than 200 yuan to more than 600 yuan, and the profit level has returned to the previous high point. In addition, the enterprise also reflects that the current inventory level is at a low level and the downstream demand is enthusiastic. According to the industry data in January, the sales revenue of the paper industry in the first eight months was 276.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14%, mainly due to the sharp year-on-year decline in the price of paper products, and the year-on-year decline of 20% in profits, which was narrower than that in May. It is worth noting that the overall monthly profitability of the industry has returned to the normal level. Taking the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the enterprise as an example, the monthly gross profit margin has recovered to 14% and the net profit margin is 6%, which has returned to the historical average level; The roe of the paper industry in January was 13%, which also returned to the historical average,

which makes us believe that the driving force for further growth of corporate profits in the future may be exhausted. In addition, the cost price of wood pulp, which accounts for 60 ~ 70% of the papermaking cost, is also expected to keep rising under the background of continuous production of paper products, which will compress the profit space of papermaking enterprises. Therefore, we expect that the profit of paper enterprises will decline more likely in the future

on the contrary, pulp and paper integrated enterprises can keep their profitability from being eroded by rising costs in the upward channel of pulp prices. In addition, as Yueyang Paper's self-made pulp accounts for more than 100% and some pulp varieties are sold out, the profit growth in the upward channel of pulp prices can also be accelerated

the strategy is often affected by the experimental temperature, humidity, impact speed, sample geometry and stress mode) slightly, we suggest that investors reduce their holdings of pulp and paper decoupling enterprises at the high profit level of the enterprise, and increase their holdings of pulp and paper integrated enterprises, such as Yueyang Paper and Chenming Paper. We believe that although the profits of pulp and paper decoupling enterprises increased significantly in the third quarter and generally exceeded the market expectations, due to the lack of cost hedging and the consideration of the conditions for using this technology in production, the rising pulp price will devour the profits of the enterprises, and the paper price is difficult to continue to rise to cover the cost pressure under the background of the expected production and export decline

there are four companies whose interim reports may exceed expectations or whose performance is relatively beautiful

Sun Paper: it is estimated that the profit per share in the third quarter is 0.31 yuan. The reason for the good performance is that the paper price increased significantly in the third quarter

Jinjia shares: it is estimated that the earnings per share in the third quarter will be 0.14 yuan, and the good performance mainly comes from the improvement of capacity utilization

Huatai shares: it is expected that the third quarter earnings per share will be 0.23 yuan, and the market is generally expected to be 0.2 yuan. The higher than expected results mainly from the rebound in paper sales and better profits in chemical business

Chenglin shares: it is expected that the third quarter earnings per share will be 0.15 yuan, and the market generally expects 0.08 yuan, which is mainly due to the increase of enterprise orders in the third quarter

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